Flyers vs. Blue Jackets
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (78%) · Blue Jackets at 56¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Blue Jackets
9
Blue Jackets 78%
$21.9K
$5.9
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlue Jackets at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Flyersavg 44¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$0 | 50% 2529-2490 (5019) |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Blue Jacketsavg 56¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$0 | 44% 44-57 (101) |
BA Babooou | Blue Jacketsavg 56¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | -$0 | 65% 17-9 (26) |
RO royalestake | Blue Jacketsavg 56¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$0 | 8% 17-192 (209) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Blue Jacketsavg 56¢ | $825.88 | $825.88 | -$0 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Flyersavg 43¢ | $537.37 | $543.61 | +$6.25 | 53% 1366-1192 (2558) |
PA Pan9X | Blue Jacketsavg 56.2¢ | $106.19 | $105.79 | -$0.4 | 50% 1593-1618 (3211) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 56¢ | $18.58 | $18.58 | +$0 | 52% 1734-1576 (3310) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 56¢ | $5.04 | $5.08 | +$0.04 | 42% 1002-1373 (2375) |
Invested
$9,045.09
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
2529-2490 (5019)
Invested
$4,799.76
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$0
Record
44%
44-57 (101)
Invested
$4,280.47
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
65%
17-9 (26)
Invested
$2,239.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
8%
17-192 (209)
Invested
$825.88
Value
$825.88
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$537.37
Value
$543.61
PnL
+$6.25
Record
53%
1366-1192 (2558)
Invested
$106.19
Value
$105.79
PnL
-$0.4
Record
50%
1593-1618 (3211)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$18.58
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1734-1576 (3310)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0.04
Record
42%
1002-1373 (2375)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRFlyers — $9.0K
0x0A77exmm
Blue Jackets — $4.8K
Babooou
Blue Jackets — $4.3K
royalestake
Blue Jackets — $2.2K
HomeRunHazard
Blue Jackets — $825.88
VeryLucky888
CTRFlyers — $543.61
Pan9X
Blue Jackets — $105.79
ghorrock
Blue Jackets — $18.58
sentrio
Blue Jackets — $5.08