Flyers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 89%
$2.1K
-$0.11
52¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10.43 | 49% 146-151 (297) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 52¢ | $535.6 | $530.45 | -$5.15 | 45% 14433-17740 (32173) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 52¢ | $525.2 | $520.15 | -$5.05 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 51.9¢ | $28.52 | $28.29 | -$0.23 | 56% 8773-6961 (15734) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $17.86 | $17.69 | -$0.17 | 57% 24685-18276 (42961) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $17.4 | $17.57 | +$0.17 | 50% 48590-48183 (96773) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 51.6¢ | $13.41 | $13.39 | -$0.02 | 52% 27270-24782 (52052) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $7.8 | $7.73 | -$0.08 | 49% 8559-8732 (17291) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.58 | -$0.03 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
Invested
$1,001.07
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.43
Record
49%
146-151 (297)
nigiri99Invested
$535.6
Value
$530.45
PnL
-$5.15
Record
45%
14433-17740 (32173)
Invested
$525.2
Value
$520.15
PnL
-$5.05
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$28.52
Value
$28.29
PnL
-$0.23
Record
56%
8773-6961 (15734)
Invested
$17.86
Value
$17.69
PnL
-$0.17
Record
57%
24685-18276 (42961)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$17.57
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
48590-48183 (96773)
Invested
$13.41
Value
$13.39
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
27270-24782 (52052)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.73
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
8559-8732 (17291)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.