Senators vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 72¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$109.09

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 71.5¢

+37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,245

Combined PnL+$252.38

Over5 traders

Total Value$719.57

Total Shares1,699

Combined PnL-$143.29

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$10.08	48% 948-1024 (1972)
ComingBack	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$256.01	61% 3944-2470 (6414)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50¢	$821.98	$690.69	-$131.29	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 49¢	$25.48	$30.16	+$4.68	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.61	$11.37	+$1.76	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$10.5	$10	-$0.5	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$18.35	$9.13	-$9.23	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$8.84	$7.42	-$1.41	57% 13877-10647 (24524)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 37.6¢	$3.2	$2.34	-$0.86	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,862.04

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$10.08

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$1,500.87

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$256.01

Record

61%

3944-2470 (6414)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$821.98

Value

$690.69

PnL

-$131.29

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$25.48

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$4.68

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$9.61

Value

$11.37

PnL

+$1.76

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.35

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$9.23

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.84

Value

$7.42

PnL

-$1.41

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$0.86

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.