Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (95%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Senators vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 5.0¢ · $365 held · ended Oct 31

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$364.63

Combined PnL

$9.81

Smart Money Entry

31.6¢ → 5¢

-84% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$170.62

Total Shares489

Combined PnL+$13.21

Over1 trader

Total Value$10.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$3.4

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 71.2¢	$218.9	$183.4	-$35.49	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.2¢	$131.4	$97.86	-$33.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$87.5	$85.54	-$1.96
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$62.93	$56.63	-$6.29	59% 30514-21223 (51737)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$33.44	$41.36	+$7.92	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$23.78	$28.98	+$5.2	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$19	$23.5	+$4.5	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$12.48	$11.28	-$1.2	56% 7101-5484 (12585)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 70¢	$14	$10.6	-$3.4	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$3.89	$6.52	+$2.64	48% 948-1024 (1972)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.35	+$0.45	48% 2435-2653 (5088)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$218.9

Value

$183.4

PnL

-$35.49

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

Both legs:

Over$131.471.2¢-$33.53

Under$87.548.1¢-$1.96

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.93

Value

$56.63

PnL

-$6.29

Record

59%

30514-21223 (51737)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.44

Value

$41.36

PnL

+$7.92

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.78

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$5.2

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

shoemanhereCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.48

Value

$11.28

PnL

-$1.2

Record

56%

7101-5484 (12585)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$14

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$3.4

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.89

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$2.64

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.3%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1491.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

1591.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.