Senators vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 55¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 14%

Total Value

$60.1K

Combined PnL

-$172.54

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 14 top traders (14%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$36.0K

Total Shares66,059

Combined PnL-$261.23

Over12 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares53,169

Combined PnL+$88.69

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI sinasinner	Underavg 54.9¢	$34.9K	$34.6K	-$274.24	32% 7-15 (22)
yabanciCTR	Overavg 45¢	$17.3K	$17.5K	+$192.61	— 6-3 (9)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 45¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$24.49	45% 82-100 (182)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$41.4	56% 541-433 (974)
nigiri99	Underavg 54¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.01	52% 602-565 (1167)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$35	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$508.45	$508.04	-$0.41	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45¢	$398.27	$393.85	-$4.43	47% 985-1122 (2107)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$379.42	$379.47	+$0.05	47% 339-375 (714)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 45¢	$135	$136.5	+$1.5	35% 166-306 (472)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$40.04	$40.48	+$0.44	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$13.65	$13.35	-$0.3	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$7.64	$7.72	+$0.08	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.33	+$0.03	41% 708-1019 (1727)

sinasinner

Under

Invested

$34,858.5

Value

$34.6K

PnL

-$274.24

Record

32%

7-15 (22)

yabanciCTR

Over

Invested

$17,334.91

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$192.61

Record

—

6-3 (9)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$2,203.65

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$24.49

Record

45%

82-100 (182)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,609.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$41.4

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,405.08

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.01

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,370

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$35

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$508.45

Value

$508.04

PnL

-$0.41

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$398.27

Value

$393.85

PnL

-$4.43

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$379.42

Value

$379.47

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$135

Value

$136.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.04

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$0.44

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.65

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.64

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 14 top traders (14%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.