Senators vs. Penguins

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (36%) · Senators at 56¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 15

Senators56¢Penguins44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Senators

Consensus Traders

Senators 36%

Total Value

$33.8K

Combined PnL

$600.27

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSenators at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Senators56%

Penguins45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Senators4 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares34,876

Combined PnL+$282.2

Penguins7 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares31,243

Combined PnL+$318.07

Senators — 36%Penguins — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Senatorsavg 54.7¢	$18.2K	$18.5K	+$252.04	52% 106-98 (204)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Penguinsavg 45¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$225	54% 189-161 (350)
BA BabooouCTR	Penguinsavg 46¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$44.4	64% 16-9 (25)
RO royalestakeCTR	Penguinsavg 45.3¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$70	8% 17-192 (209)
KnureKnume	Senatorsavg 51.7¢	$529.87	$553.71	+$23.84	14% 15-90 (105)
RO roldy	Senatorsavg 53¢	$284.29	$289.65	+$5.36	37% 11-19 (30)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Penguinsavg 45¢	$225	$222.5	-$2.5	9% 28-295 (323)
38 38791873984189CTR	Penguinsavg 49¢	$211.68	$198.72	-$12.96	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
PA Pan9XCTR	Penguinsavg 47.8¢	$169.72	$163.26	-$6.46	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 45.9¢	$37.54	$38.13	+$0.59	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Senatorsavg 54¢	$34.23	$35.18	+$0.95	46% 492-580 (1072)

taylorsversion

Senators

Invested

$18,202.36

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$252.04

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

ChonkVisionCTR

Penguins

Invested

$6,750

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$225

Record

54%

189-161 (350)

BabooouCTR

Penguins

Invested

$4,084.79

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$44.4

Record

64%

16-9 (25)

royalestakeCTR

Penguins

Invested

$2,719.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$70

Record

17-192 (209)

KnureKnume

Senators

Invested

$529.87

Value

$553.71

PnL

+$23.84

Record

14%

15-90 (105)

roldy

Senators

Invested

$284.29

Value

$289.65

PnL

+$5.36

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

PIPIZINCTR

Penguins

Invested

$225

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

28-295 (323)

38791873984189CTR

Penguins

Invested

$211.68

Value

$198.72

PnL

-$12.96

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Pan9XCTR

Penguins

Invested

$169.72

Value

$163.26

PnL

-$6.46

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$37.54

Value

$38.13

PnL

+$0.59

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Senators

Invested

$34.23

Value

$35.18

PnL

+$0.95

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

Research grade

NeutralSenators at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Senators

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Senators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.