Senators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$2.7K
-$69.16
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Underavg 50¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.09 | 54% 1170-996 (2166) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $817.5 | $809.33 | -$8.17 | 50% 6745-6752 (13497) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $393.38 | $340.11 | -$53.27 | 54% 16734-14039 (30773) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $113.02 | $93.81 | -$19.21 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $16.95 | $14.35 | -$2.59 | 56% 6838-5476 (12314) |
Invested
$1,409.48
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.09
Record
54%
1170-996 (2166)
Invested
$817.5
Value
$809.33
PnL
-$8.17
Record
50%
6745-6752 (13497)
Invested
$393.38
Value
$340.11
PnL
-$53.27
Record
54%
16734-14039 (30773)
Invested
$113.02
Value
$93.81
PnL
-$19.21
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$16.95
Value
$14.35
PnL
-$2.59
Record
56%
6838-5476 (12314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.