Senators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$2.7K
$20.46
42.4¢ → 74.5¢
+76% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 40¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$120.41 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
MR MrBentlyCTR | Overavg 60¢ | $1.0K | $876.75 | -$125.25 | 52% 511-467 (978) |
 RN1 | Underavg 52¢ | $204.98 | $214.83 | +$9.85 | 54% 55509-47585 (103094) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Underavg 47.3¢ | $189 | $178 | -$11 | 53% 3091-2720 (5811) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $70.8 | $84.08 | +$13.28 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $28.8 | $46.15 | +$11.45 | 56% 6858-5498 (12356) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $9.2 | $10.92 | +$1.72 | 54% 2891-2482 (5373) |
Invested
$1,150.8
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$120.41
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
Invested
$1,002
Value
$876.75
PnL
-$125.25
Record
52%
511-467 (978)
RN1Invested
$204.98
Value
$214.83
PnL
+$9.85
Record
54%
55509-47585 (103094)
Invested
$189
Value
$178
PnL
-$11
Record
53%
3091-2720 (5811)
Invested
$70.8
Value
$84.08
PnL
+$13.28
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$28.8
Value
$46.15
PnL
+$11.45
Record
56%
6858-5498 (12356)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$1.72
Record
54%
2891-2482 (5373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.