Senators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$12.02
83.5¢ → 50¢
-40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $645.53 | $544.91 | -$100.61 | 54% 55509-47585 (103094) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42¢ | $286.95 | $290.37 | +$3.42 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 81¢ | $358.57 | $254.54 | -$104.03 | |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 83.4¢ | $343.67 | $348.14 | +$4.47 | 50% 6761-6761 (13522) |
PU purplegatto | Overavg 83.6¢ | $200.6 | $202.8 | +$2.2 | 50% 5750-5854 (11604) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Underavg 23.1¢ | $123.78 | $115.02 | -$8.75 | 59% 29970-20691 (50661) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Underavg 16.5¢ | $83.68 | $78.58 | -$5.1 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $56.27 | $51.31 | -$4.97 | 59% 44449-30883 (75332) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $2.11 | $2.23 | +$0.13 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$645.53
Value
$544.91
PnL
-$100.61
Record
54%
55509-47585 (103094)
Both legs:
Invested
$343.67
Value
$348.14
PnL
+$4.47
Record
50%
6761-6761 (13522)
Invested
$200.6
Value
$202.8
PnL
+$2.2
Record
50%
5750-5854 (11604)
Invested
$123.78
Value
$115.02
PnL
-$8.75
Record
59%
29970-20691 (50661)
Invested
$83.68
Value
$78.58
PnL
-$5.1
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
Invested
$56.27
Value
$51.31
PnL
-$4.97
Record
59%
44449-30883 (75332)
Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.