Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Golden Knights, while the market favors Senators (70%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Golden Knights (80%) · Golden Knights at 31¢ · $488 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Golden Knights
5
Golden Knights 80%
$487.6
-$7.66
36.2¢ → 30.5¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGolden Knights at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Senators 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Golden Knightsavg 36.2¢ | $409.59 | $401.76 | -$7.83 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Senatorsavg 62.8¢ | $47.46 | $49.91 | +$0.94 | 56% 6858-5498 (12356) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 36¢ | $25.56 | $25.21 | -$0.36 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 36¢ | $6.19 | $6.1 | -$0.09 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 38¢ | $4.94 | $4.62 | -$0.33 | 54% 2891-2482 (5373) |
Invested
$409.59
Value
$401.76
PnL
-$7.83
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$47.46
Value
$49.91
PnL
+$0.94
Record
56%
6858-5498 (12356)
Invested
$25.56
Value
$25.21
PnL
-$0.36
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
Invested
$6.19
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.62
PnL
-$0.33
Record
54%
2891-2482 (5373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.