Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Senators, while the market favors Kings (97%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (40%) · Senators at 3.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Senators
5
Senators 40%
$4.4K
$85.53
30.1¢ → 3.5¢
-88% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSenators at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Senatorsavg 30.1¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$85.25 | 54% 122-105 (227) |
 0xheavy888 | Kingsavg 69¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$1 | 55% 7013-5629 (12642) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Kingsavg 70¢ | $14 | $13.8 | -$0.2 | 54% 2953-2534 (5487) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Senatorsavg 27¢ | $7.29 | $8.37 | +$1.08 | — |
DA dabossrealman<$100 | Kingsavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.2 | +$0.4 | 61% 2512-1612 (4124) |
Invested
$2,851.88
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$85.25
Record
54%
122-105 (227)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,455.52
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
7013-5629 (12642)
Invested
$14
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
2953-2534 (5487)
Invested
$7.29
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$1.08
Record
—
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
61%
2512-1612 (4124)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.