Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Senators vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.8K
$98.92
44.7¢ → 45.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$16.67 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $534.47 | $686.31 | +$151.84 | 51% 4818-4541 (9359) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $422.06 | $346.76 | -$75.3 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $199.76 | $206.57 | +$6.81 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.5¢ | $18.04 | $18.05 | +$0.01 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $4.35 | -$1.15 | 54% 3099-2669 (5768) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $3.42 | $3.46 | +$0.04 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,500.75
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$16.67
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$534.47
Value
$686.31
PnL
+$151.84
Record
51%
4818-4541 (9359)
Invested
$422.06
Value
$346.76
PnL
-$75.3
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$199.76
Value
$206.57
PnL
+$6.81
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$18.04
Value
$18.05
PnL
+$0.01
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$4.35
PnL
-$1.15
Record
54%
3099-2669 (5768)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.