Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rangers, while the market favors Oilers (60%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rangers vs. Oilers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rangers (56%) · Rangers at 41¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10

Rangers41¢Oilers59¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rangers

Consensus Traders

Rangers 56%

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$39.34

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 40.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Oilers 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rangers41%

Oilers60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers5 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares15,382

Combined PnL-$75.97

Oilers4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,202

Combined PnL+$36.64

Rangers — 56%Oilers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRangers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOilers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRangers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedRangers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rangers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalestakeCTR	Rangersavg 41¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	-$75	47% 427-474 (901)
LI Libratus007	Oilersavg 60¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	+$31.93	77% 20-6 (26)
38 38791873984189	Oilersavg 59¢	$280.84	$283.22	+$2.38	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
DA darkumbreon88	Oilersavg 59¢	$216.18	$218.01	+$1.83	65% 2216-1213 (3429)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Rangersavg 40¢	$80	$81	+$1	56% 9039-7126 (16165)
GA Gaditima<$100	Oilersavg 60.2¢	$60.21	$59	+$0.5	47% 8799-9988 (18787)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Rangersavg 42.2¢	$46.02	$44.7	-$1.32	51% 69-66 (135)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Rangersavg 41¢	$21.32	$26.02	-$0.06	57% 25537-19072 (44609)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Rangersavg 43.2¢	$17.29	$16.4	-$0.6	56% 2892-2280 (5172)

royalestakeCTR

Rangers

Invested

$6,150

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$75

Record

47%

427-474 (901)

Libratus007

Oilers

Invested

$3,154.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.93

Record

77%

20-6 (26)

38791873984189

Oilers

Invested

$280.84

Value

$283.22

PnL

+$2.38

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

darkumbreon88

Oilers

Invested

$216.18

Value

$218.01

PnL

+$1.83

Record

65%

2216-1213 (3429)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Rangers

Invested

$80

Value

$81

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

9039-7126 (16165)

Gaditima<$100

Oilers

Invested

$60.21

Value

$59

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

8799-9988 (18787)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Rangers

Invested

$46.02

Value

$44.7

PnL

-$1.32

Record

51%

69-66 (135)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Rangers

Invested

$21.32

Value

$26.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

25537-19072 (44609)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Rangers

Invested

$17.29

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

2892-2280 (5172)

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Oilers 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRangers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOilers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRangers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedRangers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rangers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.