Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Flames, while the market favors Rangers (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rangers vs. Flames
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (60%) · Flames at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Flames
5
Flames 60%
$1.9K
-$11.24
42.2¢ → 42.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlames at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA BayupatiCTR | Flamesavg 42¢ | $945 | $933.75 | -$11.25 | 9% 13-129 (142) |
RO royalestake | Rangersavg 57¢ | $715.04 | $721.31 | +$6.27 | 2% 3-184 (187) |
WE westing.v1CTR | Flamesavg 43¢ | $207.64 | $200.4 | -$7.24 | 15% 12-70 (82) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Rangersavg 57¢ | $42.25 | $43.25 | +$1 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Flamesavg 42¢ | $2.1 | $2.07 | -$0.02 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
Invested
$945
Value
$933.75
PnL
-$11.25
Record
9%
13-129 (142)
Invested
$715.04
Value
$721.31
PnL
+$6.27
Record
2%
3-184 (187)
Invested
$207.64
Value
$200.4
PnL
-$7.24
Record
15%
12-70 (82)
Invested
$42.25
Value
$43.25
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.