Spread: Islanders (-1.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (100%) · Sharks at 66¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 10

Islanders35¢Sharks65¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sharks

Consensus Traders

Sharks 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.0K

Combined PnL

-$135.97

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 65.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSharks at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Islanders35%

Sharks66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sharks8 traders

Total Value$34.1K

Total Shares52,124

Combined PnL-$135.97

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSharks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSharks 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Sharks 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sharksavg 65¢	$24.9K	$24.7K	-$188.51	30% 105-246 (351)
HO HomeRunHazard	Sharksavg 65¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$41.69	30% 29-67 (96)
0xheavy888	Sharksavg 65¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$20.5	69% 29-13 (42)
DV dv-pm	Sharksavg 66¢	$998.91	$991.34	-$7.57	— 1-3 (4)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sharksavg 65.5¢	$832.2	$830.96	-$1.24	49% 383-404 (787)
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 65.5¢	$615.87	$615.7	-$0.17
└ Islanders leg	Islandersavg 34.7¢	$216.33	$215.26	-$1.07
HI hi774c	Sharksavg 65¢	$270.97	$268.92	-$2.05	3% 9-249 (258)
GH ghorrock<$100	Sharksavg 65.2¢	$27.72	$19.47	-$0.05	53% 86-75 (161)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sharksavg 65.5¢	$32	$15.92	+$0.01	48% 173-188 (361)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sharksavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.28	+$0.03	18% 42-190 (232)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sharks

Invested

$24,888.54

Value

$24.7K

PnL

-$188.51

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

HomeRunHazard

Sharks

Invested

$5,419.39

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$41.69

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

0xheavy888

Sharks

Invested

$2,665

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$20.5

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

dv-pm

Sharks

Invested

$998.91

Value

$991.34

PnL

-$7.57

Record

—

1-3 (4)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sharks

Invested

$832.2

Value

$830.96

PnL

-$1.24

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

Both legs:

Sharks$615.8765.5¢-$0.17

Islanders$216.3334.7¢-$1.07

hi774c

Sharks

Invested

$270.97

Value

$268.92

PnL

-$2.05

Record

9-249 (258)

ghorrock<$100

Sharks

Invested

$27.72

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

Pan9X<$100

Sharks

Invested

$32

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sharks

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

NeutralSharks at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSharks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSharks 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Sharks 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sharks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.