Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sharks, while the market favors Islanders (57%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Islanders vs. Sharks

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (92%) · Sharks at 43¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Islanders57¢Sharks43¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sharks

Consensus Traders

Sharks 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$51.43

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 42.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralSharks at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Islanders57%

Sharks43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sharks11 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares13,518

Combined PnL-$55.74

Islanders1 trader

Total Value$165.03

Total Shares287

Combined PnL+$4.31

Sharks — 92%Islanders — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSharks 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrSharks 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedSharks 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Sharks 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Sharksavg 42.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$20.59	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sharksavg 43.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$9.28	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Sharksavg 43¢	$2.7K	$1.1K	-$13.38	47% 2196-2511 (4707)
HI hi774cCTR	Sharksavg 43¢	$1.9K	$789.81	-$9.29	46% 5660-6562 (12222)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Islandersavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	56% 196-152 (348)
└ Islanders leg	Islandersavg 50¢	$100	$115	+$15
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 50¢	$100	$85	-$15
CO cocococococo	Islandersavg 56¢	$287	$165.03	+$4.31	52% 1790-1620 (3410)
0xheavy888CTR	Sharksavg 43¢	$200	$85	-$1	56% 8802-6974 (15776)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Sharksavg 44¢	$75.17	$74.3	-$0.87	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
OD OddstormCTR	Sharksavg 43¢	$127	$53.98	-$0.64	48% 8346-8906 (17252)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sharksavg 43.5¢	$50	$49.73	-$0.28	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sharksavg 43.1¢	$17.94	$17.7	-$0.23	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Sharksavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.25	-$0.15	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sharksavg 43¢	$5	$2.13	-$0.03	52% 9544-8673 (18217)

VeryLucky888CTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,009.86

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20.59

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Sharks

Invested

$1,550.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$9.28

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

MadridTimeCTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,676.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$13.38

Record

47%

2196-2511 (4707)

hi774cCTR

Sharks

Invested

$1,858.38

Value

$789.81

PnL

-$9.29

Record

46%

5660-6562 (12222)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Islanders

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

196-152 (348)

Both legs:

Invested

$287

Value

$165.03

PnL

+$4.31

Record

52%

1790-1620 (3410)

0xheavy888CTR

Sharks

Invested

$200

Value

$85

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

8802-6974 (15776)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$75.17

Value

$74.3

PnL

-$0.87

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

OddstormCTR

Sharks

Invested

$127

Value

$53.98

PnL

-$0.64

Record

48%

8346-8906 (17252)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$50

Value

$49.73

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$17.94

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9544-8673 (18217)

Research grade

NeutralSharks at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sharks

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSharks 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrSharks 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedSharks 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Sharks 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sharks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.