Islanders vs. Predators: O/U 6.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 55¢ · $162 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$162.1
$8.89
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $86 | $107 | +$21 | 32% 710-1538 (2248) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $41.61 | $33.95 | -$7.66 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $21.09 | $17.21 | -$3.88 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.33 | -$0.57 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $1.61 | $1.63 | +$0.02 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
Invested
$86
Value
$107
PnL
+$21
Record
32%
710-1538 (2248)
Invested
$41.61
Value
$33.95
PnL
-$7.66
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Invested
$21.09
Value
$17.21
PnL
-$3.88
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.57
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.63
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.