Islanders vs. Predators: O/U 5.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 53¢ · $414 held · ended Oct 28

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$414.1

Combined PnL

$0.29

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$262.5

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$2.5

Under4 traders

Total Value$151.6

Total Shares321

Combined PnL+$2.79

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 53¢	$265	$262.5	-$2.5	32% 710-1538 (2248)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$73.79	$73.79	+$0.79	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$50.4	$52.04	+$1.64	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$21.15	$21.37	+$0.22	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.26	$4.4	+$0.14	56% 6856-5494 (12350)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$265

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

32%

710-1538 (2248)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.79

Value

$73.79

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.4

Value

$52.04

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.15

Value

$21.37

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.14

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.