Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Predators, while the market favors Islanders (92%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Predators (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (100%) · Predators at 8.0¢ · $517 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Predators
3
Predators 100%
$517.4
$-1.7K
30¢ → 8¢
-73% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPredators at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Predatorsavg 30¢ | $2.2K | $513.31 | $-1.7K | 54% 2267-1955 (4222) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Predatorsavg 30¢ | $3.91 | $3.68 | -$0.23 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Predatorsavg 8¢ | $0.41 | $0.41 | +$0 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.