Islanders vs. Predators
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (67%) · Predators at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Predators
6
Predators 67%
$3.0K
-$63.1
52.3¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralPredators at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Predatorsavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$10 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Islandersavg 47¢ | $874.68 | $874.68 | -$0 | 53% 112-101 (213) |
RO roldy | Predatorsavg 52.7¢ | $4.3K | $682.62 | -$47.12 | 55% 1404-1163 (2567) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Islandersavg 49¢ | $271.95 | $260.85 | -$8.33 | 52% 1643-1519 (3162) |
 0xheavy888 | Predatorsavg 52¢ | $104 | $106 | +$2 | 56% 6840-5478 (12318) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Predatorsavg 52¢ | $17.68 | $18.02 | +$0.34 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,040
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Invested
$874.68
Value
$874.68
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
112-101 (213)
Invested
$4,348.27
Value
$682.62
PnL
-$47.12
Record
55%
1404-1163 (2567)
Invested
$271.95
Value
$260.85
PnL
-$8.33
Record
52%
1643-1519 (3162)
0xheavy888Invested
$104
Value
$106
PnL
+$2
Record
56%
6840-5478 (12318)
Invested
$17.68
Value
$18.02
PnL
+$0.34
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.