Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Islanders vs. Wild: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$1.1K
-$19.74
48¢ → 46.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $1,000 | -$20.83 | 61% 3901-2449 (6350) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $26 | $26.75 | +$0.75 | 55% 6996-5613 (12609) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $17.68 | $18.02 | +$0.34 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $3.08 | $3.11 | +$0.03 | 54% 2951-2530 (5481) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.33 | -$0.03 | 47% 2189-2483 (4672) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
-$20.83
Record
61%
3901-2449 (6350)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$26
Value
$26.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
55%
6996-5613 (12609)
Invested
$17.68
Value
$18.02
PnL
+$0.34
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$3.11
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
2951-2530 (5481)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2189-2483 (4672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.