Islanders vs. Kings
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (63%) · Kings at 54¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Kings
8
Kings 63%
$22.5K
-$224.71
54¢ → 53.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKings at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH charlie5492 | Kingsavg 54¢ | $10.8K | $10.6K | -$200 | — 3-3 (6) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Islandersavg 46¢ | $8.3K | $8.3K | +$0 | 51% 2082-2008 (4090) |
 nigiri99CTR | Islandersavg 46.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$3.64 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
CO cocococococo | Kingsavg 54¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$22.22 | 20% 9-36 (45) |
 rafaleaoo | Kingsavg 53¢ | $175.4 | $177.05 | +$1.65 | 3% 20-636 (656) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kingsavg 54¢ | $54 | $53 | -$1 | 49% 1083-1137 (2220) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Islandersavg 45¢ | $19.18 | $19.6 | +$0.43 | 52% 784-728 (1512) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Kingsavg 53¢ | $12.78 | $12.86 | +$0.08 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
Invested
$10,800
Value
$10.6K
PnL
-$200
Record
—
3-3 (6)
Invested
$8,347.27
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2082-2008 (4090)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$2,094.34
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$3.64
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$1,199.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$22.22
Record
20%
9-36 (45)
rafaleaooInvested
$175.4
Value
$177.05
PnL
+$1.65
Record
3%
20-636 (656)
Invested
$54
Value
$53
PnL
-$1
Record
49%
1083-1137 (2220)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19.18
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$0.43
Record
52%
784-728 (1512)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$12.86
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.