Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Islanders, while the market favors Ducks (71%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Islanders (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (44%) · Islanders at 30¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Islanders30¢Ducks70¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Islanders

Consensus Traders

Islanders 44%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$35.87

Smart Money Entry

28.6¢ → 29.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidIslanders at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Islanders30%

Ducks71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,156

Combined PnL+$37.45

Ducks5 traders

Total Value$225.89

Total Shares320

Combined PnL-$1.58

Islanders — 44%Ducks — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Islandersavg 28.2¢	$722.96	$756.9	+$33.94	38% 16-26 (42)
nigiri99CTR	Islandersavg 29.5¢	$270.95	$271.1	+$0.15	51% 568-535 (1103)
0xheavy888	Ducksavg 71.3¢	$160.5	$158.63	-$1.88	54% 503-422 (925)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Islandersavg 29¢	$109.98	$111.88	+$1.9	45% 263-319 (582)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Islandersavg 29¢	$84.68	$86.14	+$1.46	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Ducksavg 70¢	$35.7	$35.96	+$0.25	48% 301-330 (631)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ducksavg 70.9¢	$17.36	$17.26	-$0.11	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ducksavg 69¢	$10.35	$10.42	+$0.07	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ducksavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.63	+$0.08	41% 702-1012 (1714)

chubbytoroCTR

Islanders

Invested

$722.96

Value

$756.9

PnL

+$33.94

Record

38%

16-26 (42)

nigiri99CTR

Islanders

Invested

$270.95

Value

$271.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

0xheavy888

Ducks

Invested

$160.5

Value

$158.63

PnL

-$1.88

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

Forecastication2CTR

Islanders

Invested

$109.98

Value

$111.88

PnL

+$1.9

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Islanders

Invested

$84.68

Value

$86.14

PnL

+$1.46

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Ducks

Invested

$35.7

Value

$35.96

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

ghorrock<$100

Ducks

Invested

$17.36

Value

$17.26

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Pan9X<$100

Ducks

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ducks

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

702-1012 (1714)

Research grade

AvoidIslanders at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Islanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.