Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Predators vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$1.7

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,052

Combined PnL+$15.26

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,766

Combined PnL-$13.56

Under — 10%Over — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Underavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.26	42% 24-33 (57)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.58	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$333.51	$337.06	+$3.55	44% 100-128 (228)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 48¢	$117.69	$115.24	-$2.45	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48¢	$104.31	$102.13	-$2.17	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$72.9	$72.14	-$0.76	47% 691-793 (1484)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$57.39	$56.19	-$1.2	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.16	$13.3	+$0.14	52% 432-402 (834)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.4¢	$11.18	$11.09	-$0.09	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.04	$7.04	-$0	50% 2305-2302 (4607)

chubbytoro

Under

Invested

$1,586.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.26

Record

42%

24-33 (57)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,081.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.58

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$333.51

Value

$337.06

PnL

+$3.55

Record

44%

100-128 (228)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$117.69

Value

$115.24

PnL

-$2.45

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$104.31

Value

$102.13

PnL

-$2.17

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.9

Value

$72.14

PnL

-$0.76

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.39

Value

$56.19

PnL

-$1.2

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.16

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

432-402 (834)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.18

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.