Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (25%) · Predators at 73¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 14

Golden Knights28¢Predators72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

-$929.34

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 72.5¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights28%

Predators73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators2 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares23,778

Combined PnL-$946.03

Golden Knights6 traders

Total Value$150.49

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$16.69

Predators — 25%Golden Knights — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePredators 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Predatorsavg 79¢	$18.7K	$17.8K	-$948.78	52% 2625-2462 (5087)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Predatorsavg 73¢	$86.52	$105.8	+$19.27	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 16.7¢	$36.15	$54.05	+$17.89
└ Predators leg	Predatorsavg 73¢	$50.37	$51.75	+$1.38
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 21¢	$65.45	$77.92	+$12.47	46% 455-543 (998)
PA Pan9X<$100	Predatorsavg 74¢	$87.13	$60.75	+$2.75	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 26¢	$37.96	$36.5	-$1.46	48% 269-290 (559)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 28.3¢	$17.09	$15.07	-$2.02	33% 146-291 (437)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 16¢	$8	$12.5	+$4.5	53% 759-682 (1441)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 16¢	$4.32	$6.75	+$2.43	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 14¢	$0.98	$1.75	+$0.77	37% 872-1456 (2328)

CUTJALENHURTS

Predators

Invested

$18,738.32

Value

$17.8K

PnL

-$948.78

Record

52%

2625-2462 (5087)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Predators

Invested

$86.52

Value

$105.8

PnL

+$19.27

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$36.1516.7¢+$17.89

Predators$50.3773¢+$1.38

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$65.45

Value

$77.92

PnL

+$12.47

Record

46%

455-543 (998)

Pan9X<$100

Predators

Invested

$87.13

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$37.96

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$1.46

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$17.09

Value

$15.07

PnL

-$2.02

Record

33%

146-291 (437)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

53%

759-682 (1441)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$4.32

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$2.43

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$0.98

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.77

Record

37%

872-1456 (2328)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePredators 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.