Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (40%) · Predators at 67¢ · $723 held · ended Nov 14

Golden Knights34¢Predators66¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 40%

Total Value

$723.42

Combined PnL

-$27.3

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights34%

Predators67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators4 traders

Total Value$428.69

Total Shares609

Combined PnL+$4.6

Golden Knights6 traders

Total Value$294.73

Total Shares867

Combined PnL-$31.9

Predators — 40%Golden Knights — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Predatorsavg 66¢	$333.17	$338.16	+$4.99	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Golden Knightsavg 38¢	$209	$187	-$22	43% 34-45 (79)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 36.6¢	$54.9	$51.05	-$3.85	48% 269-290 (559)
PA Pan9X<$100	Predatorsavg 66¢	$45.15	$44.97	-$0.18	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
SU suntori<$100	Predatorsavg 67¢	$42.79	$42.5	-$0.29	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 38¢	$26.08	$23.33	-$2.75	21% 158-579 (737)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 38¢	$21.28	$19.04	-$2.24	55% 441-368 (809)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 36¢	$13.38	$12.62	-$0.76	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
GH ghorrock<$100	Predatorsavg 60¢	$2.99	$3.06	+$0.07	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 40¢	$1.99	$1.69	-$0.3	45% 445-541 (986)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Predators

Invested

$333.17

Value

$338.16

PnL

+$4.99

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$209

Value

$187

PnL

-$22

Record

43%

34-45 (79)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$54.9

Value

$51.05

PnL

-$3.85

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

Pan9X<$100

Predators

Invested

$45.15

Value

$44.97

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

suntori<$100

Predators

Invested

$42.79

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

hi774cCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$26.08

Value

$23.33

PnL

-$2.75

Record

21%

158-579 (737)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$21.28

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$2.24

Record

55%

441-368 (809)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$13.38

Value

$12.62

PnL

-$0.76

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

ghorrock<$100

Predators

Invested

$2.99

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.3

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.