Spread: Kings (-1.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (50%) · Predators at 68¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 11

Kings33¢Predators67¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 50%

Total Value

$17.6K

Combined PnL

$124.69

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kings33%

Predators68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators3 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares25,515

Combined PnL+$127.57

Kings3 traders

Total Value$372.78

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL-$2.89

Predators — 50%Kings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPredators 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Predatorsavg 67¢	$16.9K	$17.1K	+$126.39	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 32¢	$272.33	$272.33	+$0	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Predatorsavg 67¢	$148.09	$149.2	+$1.11	10% 88-785 (873)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Kingsavg 33¢	$91.52	$88.74	-$2.77	48% 949-1019 (1968)
PA Pan9X<$100	Predatorsavg 67¢	$24.9	$14.93	+$0.08	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Kingsavg 32.3¢	$11.83	$11.71	-$0.12	54% 383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Predators

Invested

$16,936.86

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$126.39

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$272.33

Value

$272.33

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Predators

Invested

$148.09

Value

$149.2

PnL

+$1.11

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$91.52

Value

$88.74

PnL

-$2.77

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Pan9X<$100

Predators

Invested

$24.9

Value

$14.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$11.83

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$0.12

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPredators 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.