Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Predators, while the market favors Kings (56%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Predators vs. Kings

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (67%) · Predators at 45¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 11

Predators45¢Kings55¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 67%

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

-$129.25

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 44.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Predators45%

Kings56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators8 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares30,247

Combined PnL-$100.99

Kings4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,047

Combined PnL-$28.27

Predators — 67%Kings — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Predatorsavg 45¢	$10.3K	$10.2K	-$114.87	54% 1629-1388 (3017)
RO royalestake	Kingsavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$35	1% 2-178 (180)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Predatorsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888CTR	Predatorsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$900	+$13.83	49% 235-240 (475)
CO cocococococo	Kingsavg 55¢	$611.05	$616.61	+$5.56	0% 0-30 (30)
VE VenusianCTR	Predatorsavg 45¢	$283.71	$283.71	+$0	25% 216-657 (873)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Predatorsavg 45¢	$222.08	$222.08	+$0	47% 148-167 (315)
SE sentrioCTR	Predatorsavg 45¢	$185.67	$185.67	-$0	31% 170-384 (554)
WE westing.v1	Kingsavg 55¢	$129.78	$130.96	+$1.18	5% 3-62 (65)
0xheavy888	Kingsavg 54¢	$108	$108	+$0	56% 108-86 (194)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Predatorsavg 45¢	$45	$45	+$0	48% 424-451 (875)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Predatorsavg 45¢	$14.97	$12.55	+$0.05	53% 325-288 (613)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Predators

Invested

$10,338.19

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$114.87

Record

54%

1629-1388 (3017)

royalestake

Kings

Invested

$1,925

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$35

Record

2-178 (180)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Predators

Invested

$1,624.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888CTR

Predators

Invested

$1,646.81

Value

$900

PnL

+$13.83

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

cocococococo

Kings

Invested

$611.05

Value

$616.61

PnL

+$5.56

Record

0-30 (30)

VenusianCTR

Predators

Invested

$283.71

Value

$283.71

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

SnakeBallCTR

Predators

Invested

$222.08

Value

$222.08

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

sentrioCTR

Predators

Invested

$185.67

Value

$185.67

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

westing.v1

Kings

Invested

$129.78

Value

$130.96

PnL

+$1.18

Record

3-62 (65)

0xheavy888

Kings

Invested

$108

Value

$108

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

108-86 (194)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$45

Value

$45

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

424-451 (875)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Predators

Invested

$14.97

Value

$12.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.