Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.8K
$20.45
46¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.97 | 2% 3-184 (187) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $86.12 | $87.74 | +$1.62 | 45% 267-323 (590) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $12.44 | $13 | +$0.57 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $7.95 | $8.1 | +$0.15 | 49% 678-717 (1395) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $6.16 | $6.29 | +$0.14 | 48% 1401-1536 (2937) |
Invested
$1,653.25
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.97
Record
2%
3-184 (187)
Invested
$86.12
Value
$87.74
PnL
+$1.62
Record
45%
267-323 (590)
Invested
$12.44
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.57
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
678-717 (1395)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
1401-1536 (2937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.