Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Predators vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 33¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 100%
$1.0K
$34.43
31.5¢ → 33¢
+5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 31.9¢ | $1.2K | $553.22 | +$24.87 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Underavg 30.5¢ | $230.41 | $238.18 | +$7.77 | 13% 28-196 (224) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $73.29 | $72.13 | -$1.16 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 32.5¢ | $40.44 | $41.1 | +$0.66 | 30% 326-779 (1105) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.5¢ | $40.95 | $40.95 | +$0 | 68% 1617-760 (2377) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 31.5¢ | $51.7 | $35.52 | +$0.78 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $31 | $33 | +$2 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $16.73 | $16.24 | -$0.49 | 29% 332-810 (1142) |
Invested
$1,209.99
Value
$553.22
PnL
+$24.87
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$230.41
Value
$238.18
PnL
+$7.77
Record
13%
28-196 (224)
Invested
$73.29
Value
$72.13
PnL
-$1.16
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$40.44
Value
$41.1
PnL
+$0.66
Record
30%
326-779 (1105)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$40.95
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
1617-760 (2377)
Invested
$51.7
Value
$35.52
PnL
+$0.78
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
Invested
$31
Value
$33
PnL
+$2
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$16.73
Value
$16.24
PnL
-$0.49
Record
29%
332-810 (1142)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.