Predators vs. Ducks
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (60%) · Ducks at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Ducks
5
Ducks 60%
$1.0K
$12.62
56.1¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDucks at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Ducksavg 56.1¢ | $893.48 | $907.61 | +$14.13 | 40% 241-361 (602) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Predatorsavg 43.6¢ | $57.71 | $56.28 | -$1.43 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ducksavg 56¢ | $35.49 | $36.12 | +$0.63 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Ducksavg 57¢ | $16.53 | $16.38 | -$0.15 | 69% 2574-1166 (3740) |
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Predatorsavg 44¢ | $16.65 | $16.08 | -$0.57 | 1% 4-440 (444) |
Invested
$893.48
Value
$907.61
PnL
+$14.13
Record
40%
241-361 (602)
Invested
$57.71
Value
$56.28
PnL
-$1.43
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$35.49
Value
$36.12
PnL
+$0.63
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$16.53
Value
$16.38
PnL
-$0.15
Record
69%
2574-1166 (3740)
Invested
$16.65
Value
$16.08
PnL
-$0.57
Record
1%
4-440 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.