Spread: Devils (-1.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (70%) · Capitals at 84¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Devils16¢Capitals84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Capitals

Consensus Traders

Capitals 70%

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$31.38

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 84¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Devils16%

Capitals84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Capitals7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,597

Combined PnL-$127.04

Devils3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,615

Combined PnL+$95.66

Capitals — 70%Devils — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Capitalsavg 69¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$121.12	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Devilsavg 31¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$94.18	46% 52-61 (113)
0xheavy888	Capitalsavg 66.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$1.65	56% 541-433 (974)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Devilsavg 33¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.7	38% 16-26 (42)
38 38791873984189	Capitalsavg 67¢	$399.99	$374.22	-$5.67	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100	Capitalsavg 68¢	$47.6	$46.2	-$1.4	48% 11-12 (23)
PA Pan9X<$100	Capitalsavg 67.8¢	$31.05	$31.06	+$0.01	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Capitalsavg 67¢	$22.8	$22.46	-$0.34	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Capitalsavg 79¢	$8.22	$8.07	-$0.16	35% 166-306 (472)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Devilsavg 15¢	$1.56	$2.34	+$0.78	38% 1175-1954 (3129)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Capitals

Invested

$3,581.58

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$121.12

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Devils

Invested

$1,459.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$94.18

Record

46%

52-61 (113)

0xheavy888

Capitals

Invested

$1,448.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.65

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

chubbytoroCTR

Devils

Invested

$1,284.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.7

Record

38%

16-26 (42)

38791873984189

Capitals

Invested

$399.99

Value

$374.22

PnL

-$5.67

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100

Capitals

Invested

$47.6

Value

$46.2

PnL

-$1.4

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

Pan9X<$100

Capitals

Invested

$31.05

Value

$31.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrock<$100

Capitals

Invested

$22.8

Value

$22.46

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

BoomLaLa<$100

Capitals

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.07

PnL

-$0.16

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Devils

Invested

$1.56

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.78

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Capitals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.