Devils vs. Jets
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (80%) · Devils at 59¢ · $309 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Devils
5
Devils 80%
$308.59
-$0.27
58.5¢ → 58.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDevils at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Pan9X | Devilsavg 58.5¢ | $111.69 | $111.74 | +$0.05 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Devilsavg 58¢ | $80.32 | $81.01 | +$0.69 | 0% 0-29 (29) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Devilsavg 58.9¢ | $70.68 | $70.19 | -$0.48 | 69% 2536-1149 (3685) |
WE westing.v1CTR<$100 | Jetsavg 42¢ | $37.18 | $36.29 | -$0.44 | 3% 2-60 (62) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Devilsavg 59¢ | $9.44 | $9.36 | -$0.08 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
Invested
$111.69
Value
$111.74
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$80.32
Value
$81.01
PnL
+$0.69
Record
0%
0-29 (29)
Invested
$70.68
Value
$70.19
PnL
-$0.48
Record
69%
2536-1149 (3685)
Invested
$37.18
Value
$36.29
PnL
-$0.44
Record
3%
2-60 (62)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$9.44
Value
$9.36
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.