Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 8.5¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$3.2K
$193.63
45.4¢ → 8.5¢
-81% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$123.11 | 48% 783-852 (1635) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 44.8¢ | $242.05 | $234.25 | +$37.45 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $57.07 | $56.46 | -$0.62 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $20.7 | $53.48 | +$32.78 | 54% 4865-4090 (8955) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $23 | $23.25 | +$0.25 | 53% 11542-10038 (21580) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.06 | $1.72 | +$0.66 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
Invested
$2,843.78
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$123.11
Record
48%
783-852 (1635)
Invested
$242.05
Value
$234.25
PnL
+$37.45
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$57.07
Value
$56.46
PnL
-$0.62
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$53.48
PnL
+$32.78
Record
54%
4865-4090 (8955)
Invested
$23
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
11542-10038 (21580)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.66
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.