Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 17¢ · $483 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
2 arb excluded
$482.72
$0.21
Research grade
AvoidOver at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 63.4¢ | $224.28 | $225.21 | +$0.93 | 48% 783-852 (1635) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63.4¢ | $155.88 | $168.51 | +$12.63 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38¢ | $68.4 | $56.7 | -$11.7 | |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Underavg 65.4¢ | $117.14 | $111.68 | -$5.47 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 65.4¢ | $73.87 | $81.93 | +$8.05 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40¢ | $43.27 | $29.75 | -$13.52 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 60.5¢ | $84.07 | $98.63 | +$14.56 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 66.5¢ | $25.26 | $18.24 | -$7.02 | 53% 11542-10038 (21580) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $12.72 | $16.93 | +$4.21 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $21.63 | $10.81 | -$10.81 | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $1.42 | $0.69 | -$0.73 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
Invested
$224.28
Value
$225.21
PnL
+$0.93
Record
48%
783-852 (1635)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.14
Value
$111.68
PnL
-$5.47
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.07
Value
$98.63
PnL
+$14.56
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$25.26
Value
$18.24
PnL
-$7.02
Record
53%
11542-10038 (21580)
Invested
$12.72
Value
$16.93
PnL
+$4.21
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$21.63
Value
$10.81
PnL
-$10.81
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.42
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$0.73
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.