Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.5K
$52.87
45¢ → 44.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
97 0x9703...69c2CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $729.45 | $786.19 | +$56.73 | — |
CH chubbytoro | Underavg 55¢ | $385.55 | $361.02 | -$24.54 | 47% 87-100 (187) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $244.8 | $263.84 | +$19.04 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $39.01 | $38.1 | -$0.91 | 54% 17115-14327 (31442) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $24.75 | $26.68 | +$1.93 | 58% 28411-20968 (49379) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $5.17 | $5.78 | +$0.62 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
Invested
$729.45
Value
$786.19
PnL
+$56.73
Record
—
Invested
$385.55
Value
$361.02
PnL
-$24.54
Record
47%
87-100 (187)
Invested
$244.8
Value
$263.84
PnL
+$19.04
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$39.01
Value
$38.1
PnL
-$0.91
Record
54%
17115-14327 (31442)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$26.68
PnL
+$1.93
Record
58%
28411-20968 (49379)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$0.62
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.