Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 55¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$13.8K
-$721.04
55¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoroCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $7.1K | $6.1K | $-1.0K | 47% 87-100 (187) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 55¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$41.02 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$338.71 | 54% 17123-14335 (31458) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 55.5¢ | $51.06 | $56.58 | +$5.52 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $22.95 | $19.64 | -$3.31 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
Invested
$7,075.42
Value
$6.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
47%
87-100 (187)
Invested
$4,511.98
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$41.02
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$2,866.03
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$338.71
Record
54%
17123-14335 (31458)
Invested
$51.06
Value
$56.58
PnL
+$5.52
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
Invested
$22.95
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$3.31
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.