Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (71%) · Devils at 87¢ · $701 held · ended Oct 30

Golden Knights14¢Devils86¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Devils

Consensus Traders

Devils 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$701.01

Combined PnL

$4.23

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 86.5¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights14%

Devils87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Devils5 traders

Total Value$628.29

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$0.36

Golden Knights2 traders

Total Value$9.45

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$4.59

Devils — 71%Golden Knights — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDevils 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Devils 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Devilsavg 70¢	$299.59	$295.31	+$2.14	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Devilsavg 71¢	$107.72	$104.69	-$3.03	48% 783-852 (1635)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Devilsavg 70¢	$96.85	$95.46	-$1.38	45% 676-832 (1508)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Devilsavg 70¢	$72.1	$71.07	-$1.03	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Devilsavg 72.4¢	$50.62	$63.25	+$12.64	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 72.4¢	$38.72	$36.9	-$1.81
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 14¢	$11.9	$26.35	+$14.45
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Devilsavg 81.4¢	$58.81	$61.75	+$2.95	53% 11542-10038 (21580)
poshposhCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 13¢	$3.32	$7.9	+$4.59	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.55	-$0	57% 2154-1595 (3749)

38791873984189

Devils

Invested

$299.59

Value

$295.31

PnL

+$2.14

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Devils

Invested

$107.72

Value

$104.69

PnL

-$3.03

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Devils

Invested

$96.85

Value

$95.46

PnL

-$1.38

Record

45%

676-832 (1508)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Devils

Invested

$72.1

Value

$71.07

PnL

-$1.03

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$50.62

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$12.64

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Both legs:

Devils$38.7272.4¢-$1.81

Golden Knights$11.914¢+$14.45

BoomLaLa<$100

Devils

Invested

$58.81

Value

$61.75

PnL

+$2.95

Record

53%

11542-10038 (21580)

poshposhCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$3.32

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$4.59

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

2154-1595 (3749)

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDevils 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Devils 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.