Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (80%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Devils vs. Stars: O/U 7.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 20¢ · $898 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 20%
$897.85
-$71.19
Research grade
AvoidOver at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 23¢ | $610.41 | $530.79 | -$79.62 | 32% 710-1538 (2248) |
 poshposh | Underavg 77¢ | $166.28 | $172.76 | +$2.16 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
BO BoomLaLa | Underavg 77¢ | $115.5 | $120 | +$4.5 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $49.28 | $51.2 | +$1.92 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $23.4 | $23.1 | -$0.15 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
Invested
$610.41
Value
$530.79
PnL
-$79.62
Record
32%
710-1538 (2248)
poshposhInvested
$166.28
Value
$172.76
PnL
+$2.16
Record
60%
9181-6134 (15315)
Invested
$115.5
Value
$120
PnL
+$4.5
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
Invested
$49.28
Value
$51.2
PnL
+$1.92
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$23.1
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.