Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Devils vs. Stars: O/U 5.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$9.27

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,235

Combined PnL+$26.77

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,780

Combined PnL-$17.5

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25.8	47% 77-86 (163)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.5	32% 708-1538 (2246)
StudyPrediction	Overavg 50¢	$140.1	$140.1	+$0	53% 4529-3951 (8480)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$101	$100	-$1	51% 1223-1158 (2381)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$50	$50	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$51	$50	-$1
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$54.22	$54	+$0.1	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$33.15	$32.5	-$0.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$21.07	$21.5	+$0.43
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$47.39	$48.36	+$0.97	54% 16758-14063 (30821)

chubbytoroCTR

Under

Invested

$2,517.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.8

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$1,785

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

32%

708-1538 (2246)

StudyPrediction

Over

Invested

$140.1

Value

$140.1

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4529-3951 (8480)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$101

Value

$100

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

1223-1158 (2381)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.22

Value

$54

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

Both legs:

Over$33.1551¢-$0.33

Under$21.0749¢+$0.43

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.39

Value

$48.36

PnL

+$0.97

Record

54%

16758-14063 (30821)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.