Spread: Stars (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (60%) · Devils at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Devils
5
Devils 60%
$1.1K
-$33.82
72.5¢ → 91.5¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDevils at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoro | Devilsavg 70¢ | $586.44 | $557.11 | -$29.32 | 47% 77-86 (163) |
 ReformedxCTR | Starsavg 30¢ | $300 | $335 | +$35 | 52% 775-722 (1497) |
JU justaluckydude | Devilsavg 79.9¢ | $239.93 | $199.67 | -$40.27 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Devilsavg 69¢ | $35.25 | $33.97 | -$1.28 | 56% 6856-5494 (12350) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Starsavg 21.7¢ | $3.74 | $5.78 | +$2.04 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
Invested
$586.44
Value
$557.11
PnL
-$29.32
Record
47%
77-86 (163)
ReformedxCTRInvested
$300
Value
$335
PnL
+$35
Record
52%
775-722 (1497)
Invested
$239.93
Value
$199.67
PnL
-$40.27
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$35.25
Value
$33.97
PnL
-$1.28
Record
56%
6856-5494 (12350)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$2.04
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.