Spread: Devils (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Stars (80%) · Stars at 75¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Stars
5
Stars 80%
$17.2K
-$41.37
73¢ → 75¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralStars at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Starsavg 73¢ | $15.0K | $11.0K | +$74.77 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
CH chubbytoroCTR | Devilsavg 27¢ | $6.3K | $6.1K | -$115.81 | 47% 77-86 (163) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Starsavg 74¢ | $53.93 | $53.57 | -$0.36 | 54% 2891-2482 (5373) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Starsavg 73¢ | $46.63 | $47.04 | -$0.13 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Starsavg 72¢ | $11.25 | $8.27 | +$0.17 | 56% 6856-5494 (12350) |
Invested
$14,950.68
Value
$11.0K
PnL
+$74.77
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Invested
$6,253.69
Value
$6.1K
PnL
-$115.81
Record
47%
77-86 (163)
Invested
$53.93
Value
$53.57
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
2891-2482 (5373)
Invested
$46.63
Value
$47.04
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11.25
Value
$8.27
PnL
+$0.17
Record
56%
6856-5494 (12350)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.