Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Devils vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$2.3K
$8.19
49.5¢ → 49.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $990 | -$10 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 50¢ | $500 | $505 | +$5 | 53% 5500-4845 (10345) |
CH chubbytoroCTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $468.29 | $479.09 | +$10.8 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 50¢ | $295.99 | $298.95 | +$2.96 | 47% 2407-2692 (5099) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 50.8¢ | $31.5 | $31.31 | -$0.19 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 51.9¢ | $14.27 | $13.75 | -$0.38 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$990
PnL
-$10
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$500
Value
$505
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5500-4845 (10345)
Invested
$468.29
Value
$479.09
PnL
+$10.8
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
Invested
$295.99
Value
$298.95
PnL
+$2.96
Record
47%
2407-2692 (5099)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$31.5
Value
$31.31
PnL
-$0.19
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.27
Value
$13.75
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.