Devils vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$45.82

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 67.5¢

+36% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,490

Combined PnL-$48.92

Over2 traders

Total Value$119.54

Total Shares207

Combined PnL+$3.1

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Underavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$49.63	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Overavg 59.8¢	$109.77	$110.23	+$0.45	47% 85-95 (180)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$59.5	$60	+$0.5	56% 6932-5550 (12482)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$6.67	$9.32	+$2.65	53% 11468-9983 (21451)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$8.35	$8.52	+$0.17	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$4	+$0.05	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$1,654.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$49.63

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

chubbytoroCTR

Over

Invested

$109.77

Value

$110.23

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$59.5

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.67

Value

$9.32

PnL

+$2.65

Record

53%

11468-9983 (21451)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$8.35

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.