Spread: Devils (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (83%) · Avalanche at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Avalanche
6
Avalanche 83%
$5.7K
$32.96
77.7¢ → 76.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAvalanche at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Avalancheavg 77.7¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$61.18 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
CH chubbytoroCTR | Devilsavg 22.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$91.5 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
 0xheavy888 | Avalancheavg 78¢ | $156 | $159 | +$3 | 56% 6910-5525 (12435) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Avalancheavg 78¢ | $24.26 | $23.79 | -$0.46 | 57% 13139-10016 (23155) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Avalancheavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $15.9 | +$0.3 | 54% 2922-2509 (5431) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Avalancheavg 78.5¢ | $7.85 | $7.65 | -$0.2 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
Invested
$4,026
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$61.18
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Invested
$1,467.69
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$91.5
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
0xheavy888Invested
$156
Value
$159
PnL
+$3
Record
56%
6910-5525 (12435)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$23.79
PnL
-$0.46
Record
57%
13139-10016 (23155)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$15.9
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
2922-2509 (5431)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$7.65
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.