Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Devils, while the market favors Avalanche (60%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Devils vs. Avalanche
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (33%) · Devils at 41¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Devils
6
Devils 33%
$6.5K
-$223.86
39.2¢ → 40.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDevils at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoroCTR | Devilsavg 39¢ | $2.8K | $2.5K | -$288.33 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
RO roldyCTR | Devilsavg 39.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$70.44 | 55% 1407-1171 (2578) |
 VeryLucky888 | Avalancheavg 60¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$9.93 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
 0xheavy888 | Avalancheavg 59.8¢ | $149.5 | $148.75 | -$0.75 | 56% 6908-5524 (12432) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Avalancheavg 60.9¢ | $44.52 | $47.49 | +$2.97 | 57% 13137-10012 (23149) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Avalancheavg 62¢ | $35.96 | $37.7 | +$1.74 | 58% 28119-20724 (48843) |
Invested
$2,811.26
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$288.33
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
Invested
$2,430.84
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$70.44
Record
55%
1407-1171 (2578)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,208.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$9.93
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
0xheavy888Invested
$149.5
Value
$148.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
56%
6908-5524 (12432)
Invested
$44.52
Value
$47.49
PnL
+$2.97
Record
57%
13137-10012 (23149)
Invested
$35.96
Value
$37.7
PnL
+$1.74
Record
58%
28119-20724 (48843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.