Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (75%) · Maple Leafs at 68¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 8

Canadiens33¢Maple Leafs67¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 75%

Total Value

$36.2K

Combined PnL

$329.76

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 67.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens33%

Maple Leafs68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maple Leafs6 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares34,233

Combined PnL+$148.52

Canadiens2 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares38,898

Combined PnL+$181.24

Maple Leafs — 75%Canadiens — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Maple Leafsavg 68¢	$21.4K	$21.5K	+$157.16	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Canadiensavg 32¢	$12.2K	$12.3K	+$190	50% 144-146 (290)
DV dv-pm	Maple Leafsavg 68¢	$957.44	$950.4	-$7.04	48% 3364-3589 (6953)
38 38791873984189	Maple Leafsavg 68.1¢	$830.06	$831.98	+$1.93	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
nigiri99CTR	Canadiensavg 33¢	$296.12	$287.36	-$8.76	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
0xheavy888	Maple Leafsavg 68.7¢	$206	$202.5	-$3.5	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
GH ghorrock<$100	Maple Leafsavg 68.2¢	$41.28	$33.49	+$0.13	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
PA Pan9X<$100	Maple Leafsavg 68.5¢	$20.55	$20.4	-$0.15	54% 10453-8773 (19226)

ferrariChampions2026

Maple Leafs

Invested

$21,373.33

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$157.16

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

taylorsversionCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$12,160

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$190

Record

50%

144-146 (290)

dv-pm

Maple Leafs

Invested

$957.44

Value

$950.4

PnL

-$7.04

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

38791873984189

Maple Leafs

Invested

$830.06

Value

$831.98

PnL

+$1.93

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

nigiri99CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$296.12

Value

$287.36

PnL

-$8.76

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

0xheavy888

Maple Leafs

Invested

$206

Value

$202.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

ghorrock<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$41.28

Value

$33.49

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Pan9X<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$20.55

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.