Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (22%) · Canadiens at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Canadiens54¢Maple Leafs46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canadiens

Consensus Traders

Canadiens 22%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$31.08

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens54%

Maple Leafs47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,215

Combined PnL-$54.93

Maple Leafs7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,344

Combined PnL+$23.85

Canadiens — 22%Maple Leafs — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Canadiens) and the top 1000 (9 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleMaple Leafs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrMaple Leafs 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanadiens 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cocococococo	Canadiensavg 53.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$34.85	53% 1754-1586 (3340)
TA taylorsversion	Canadiensavg 54.2¢	$646.23	$626.15	-$20.08	50% 144-146 (290)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Maple Leafsavg 48.2¢	$611.41	$602.07	+$6.34	54% 18478-15550 (34028)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45¢	$180	$190	+$10	53% 12584-11282 (23866)
PA Pan9XCTR	Maple Leafsavg 45.7¢	$138.88	$144.4	+$5.52	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
SE sentrioCTR	Maple Leafsavg 47¢	$139.26	$140.74	+$1.48	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 47¢	$23.5	$23.75	+$0.25	56% 8222-6527 (14749)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 46.4¢	$56.52	$9.86	+$0.24	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	52% 9014-8167 (17181)

cocococococo

Canadiens

Invested

$1,621.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$34.85

Record

53%

1754-1586 (3340)

taylorsversion

Canadiens

Invested

$646.23

Value

$626.15

PnL

-$20.08

Record

50%

144-146 (290)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$611.41

Value

$602.07

PnL

+$6.34

Record

54%

18478-15550 (34028)

BoomLaLaCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$180

Value

$190

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

12584-11282 (23866)

Pan9XCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$138.88

Value

$144.4

PnL

+$5.52

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

sentrioCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$139.26

Value

$140.74

PnL

+$1.48

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$23.5

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

8222-6527 (14749)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$56.52

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Canadiens) and the top 1000 (9 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleMaple Leafs 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrMaple Leafs 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanadiens 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canadiens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.