Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (79%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Canadiens vs. Blues: O/U 6.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 21¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 100%
$1.4K
$-2.4K
47¢ → 21¢
-55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $8.0K | $1.4K | $-2.4K | 46% 366-422 (788) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $2.45 | $2.45 | +$0 | 60% 9216-6172 (15388) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $0.39 | $0.4 | +$0.01 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.