Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 6.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$1.2K
-$21.52
43.9¢ → 43¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $1.0K | $977.39 | -$22.73 | 61% 3900-2449 (6349) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $136.56 | $136.56 | +$1.59 | 55% 6994-5612 (12606) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $48.72 | $48.34 | -$0.38 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.